Plotting activity of the day: SWS hunger data

From (largely) quarterly SWS data on total hunger incidence (% of households who experienced having nothing to eat at least once in the past 3 months)...

...I got this trend line with a polynomial fit (order=6) superimposed. I tried reverse engineering an existing line graph online using PlotDigitizer when I had no data to work on, but it turned out to be largely inaccurate unless the data points were identifiable.

The permanence of negative growth shocks

This recent post on Econbrowser is worth reposting in full.

Suppose that output Y grows at 1% quarterly in log terms.

Then a 2 percentage-point drop in one quarter will permanently decrease the trend even if growth reverts back to the pre-shock level in the succeeding quarter.

The only way to revert back to the pre-shock trend is to balance the 2-ppt drop by a subsequent 2-ppt increase in a subsequent period. 

This simple illustration resonates with the economic crises experienced during the Marcos era, which undoubtedly had permanent negative effects that we are only recently counteracting with stellar growth. Our future leaders should take heed of these potential permanent effects.

Price discrimination, illustrated

Link fiesta (1.2.15)

Happy New Year! Here's a string of links to start off the year.

1. 2015: A big year for development. (link)
2. The latest on the question: Does aid work? (link)
3. Is it time to get rid of currency? (link)
4. Global liquid oil supply curve. (link) Also, Oliver Blanchard of the IMF and MIT on the world oil prices. (link)
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5. Mankiw on Piketty; he's not impressed. (link)
6. Tabarrok on Piketty; it's all dependent on the fertility and bequest decisions of the rich. (link)
7. Interview of Harvard's Raj Chetty. (link)
8. The most influential economists c. 2014. (link, link)
9. How will commerce be regulated/adjudicated in outer space? (link)
1. "Their bottom line is that it is not necessary to have a government that rules outer space in order to have a recognized legal system for dispute resolution in outer space."
10. Do children and animals avoid the sunk cost fallacy? (link)
11. The health effects of unemployment. (link)
12. What 2000 calories look like. (link)
13. America's Christmas gift list 2014 (as seen in Google searches). (link)
14. The US Census Bureau vs. academics. Underscores the critical role played by government surveys in uncovering social trends. (link)
15. Productivity decreases with work hours in OECD countries. (link)
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